Energy Markets Outlook: Gas Market Analysis

Work has been carried out by the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) on the options available for measuring one of its key objectives: UK energy security of supply.

This work showed that estimating future ‘expected energy unserved’ provides a powerful analytical tool for measuring energy security. Expected energy unserved is derived from the combination of possible levels of shortfall between supply and demand and their probabilities, to give a probability-weighted amount of unserved demand.

Building on this work, an internal project was commissioned to develop a UK gas market model (BERR Gas Market Model) which would allow this issue to be examined in detail.

A series of reports describing the model and detailing various analytical investigations are presented on this page:

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