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Emissions Projections

Energy and carbon dioxide emissions projections are used to inform policy development and their refinement to reflect new data, policy measures and other information is part of an ongoing exercise. These projections are used to inform the Climate Change Programme and the Energy Review and are also used as an input to the National Allocation Plan for the EU ETS to inform the allocation of allowances to sectors covered by the scheme.

Carbon dioxide emissions projections for industrial sectors covered by the EU ETS

BERR is responsible for developing emissions projections for EU ETS sectors for the Phase II (2008-12) period. These projections are used as part of the development of the UK National Allocation Plan for Phase II of the scheme.

Projections have been developed using BERR modelling expertise and work commissioned from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) and the Carbon Consortium. A report by OEF is available below:

• Research on output growth rates and carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial sectors of EU-ETS: final report by Oxford Economic Forecasting - February 2006  (594KB)
  URN 06/1129
  

A consultation on the EU ETS Phase II CO2 Emissions Projections was conducted between February - April 2006. A full response to consultation and a paper showing a summary of responses and recommended revisions to sector projections since February are available online.

An updated OEF report is also available below:

• Research on output growth rates and carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial sectors of EU ETS: post consultation and review by Oxford Economic Forecasting - August 2006  (352KB)
  URN 06/1825