Updated Energy Projections (UEP)
The Updated Energy Projections (UEP) are published annually by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). They provide updated projections and analysis of energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the UK. The UEP exercise incorporates all firm environmental policy measures and is based on updated assumptions consistent with the most recent UK Budget announcements. These projections inform energy policy and associated analytical work across government departments.
The most recent updated energy and carbon emissions projections were published in November 2008 and replace those published in May 2007.
The UEP exercise providing updated energy and carbon dioxide emissions projections began in April 2003 to inform the National Allocation Plan of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) UK National Allocation Plan (Phase I). Other policy informed by the projections includes, the UK Climate Change Programme Review (May 2006), the Energy Review (July 2006), the EU ETS UK National Allocation Plan (Phase II) and the Energy white paper: meeting the energy challenge (May 2007).
Projections Advisory Group (PAG) to UEP
An expert advisory group, set up by the Department for Trade & Industry (DTI, now DECC) meets from time to time to consider largely technical matters related to the process of energy modelling and the production of UEP projections. This is known as the Projections Advisory Group (PAG). All material relevant to the PAG, including minutes of meetings, a list of members and terms of reference, can be found on the Projections Advisory Group web pages.
Key modelling assumptions of UEP
Fossil fuel price and other key assumptions are revised from time to time and published with each updated set of projections.
The most recent fossil fuel price assumptions are published and available below with the latest projections and are the result of a previous consultation based on the assumptions used in the previous projections.
As energy markets move on, and especially in a period of price volatility, it is important to keep such assumptions under review.
For any enquiries regarding energy and emissions projections, please email the DECC modelling team at: emissionsprojections@berr.gsi.gov.uk.
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